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I read a really interesting post by Ryan Broderick yesterday.
In it, he discusses how we’re already in the third Pivot to Video phase of the 21st century, what he refers to as the “Bloat Era”.
“A Pivot To Video tends to arrive in stages, with each stage being more expensive and producing less interesting content as things progress. Usually it goes like this: The experimentation phase, the factory phase, and the bloat phase.”
He explains that video “bloat” involves incurring massively inflated production costs to keep viewers engaged longer. As he points out, you only have to look at Mr Beast’s current production budget on YouTube (up to $5million per video) to get an idea of where the industry’s heading.
This is the unfortunate byproduct of the Tiktockification of social media. It’s what happens when platforms start gearing themselves almost entirely towards the attention economy instead of the subscriber-based system most writing sites favour.
It’s unsustainable, and it’ll eventually kill the viability of video.
The silver lining
In some ways, that’s good news for writers. While social media’s becoming more time-consuming and less effective by the day, writing-based sites like Medium and Substack are steadily growing.
Where blink-and-you-miss-it, algorithm-suppressed social media posts are dying, subscriber-based email newsletters are thriving.
After decades spent watching increasingly engagement-focused video content, people are becoming tired. TikTok is exhausting. Social media gimmicks are wearisome.
Viewers and readers crave authenticity now above all else, especially Gen Z, who are more or less immune to traditional advertising methods.
Ryan concludes with this:
“There is simply no incentive for these [social media] platforms to regress even though users seem to want them to. If history tells us anything here, viewers will start gravitating towards less professional video content, not more.”
Time to change direction
If video-based platforms don’t find a way to pivot towards simplicity and authenticity soon, they may find themselves seriously struggling to survive the waning years of the Bloat Era.
It’s good news for creators who don’t enjoy being in front of the camera and may have felt under pressure to do so. It’s why I believe writing will continue to quietly endure while every other medium flails about in panic.
Video can last, but only if it evolves in line with what viewers actually want.
Have you ever created video content? What’s been your experience so far?
I have a YouTube channel and am caught up in a pointless attempt at trying to make more professional content while I simultaneously prefer watching less professional content. I think you’re right that the trend is now towards amateur authenticity and away from big budget stuff. People need less entertainment and more connection.
I’m personally tapped out with most short form video content. It’s too much rattling around my head and feels overwhelming and distracting from my own independent thoughts.
I never went on TikTok and I’m constantly thinking of leaving IG for this reason.
That being said - I still get stuck in the scroll